12 July 2025 by Philip Smith

A year ago I produced an opinion piece for this paper on behalf of Uniting UK, a locally based pro-Union campaign group, calling on mainstream political unionism to reflect, change and realign. To build a unionist politics that has a larger vote than the sum of its parts.12 months later, and apart from being closer to the next election, there has been no progress.  The old unionist standard of ‘United We Stand, Divided We Fall’ no longer runs true. None of this is new. Alex Kane in 2015 said of the unionist political parties, “once you remove the criticisms they have of each other, there don't appear to be huge differences when it comes to either policy or goals.”

I understand that change is difficult and that there are risks for political leaders and parties in embarking upon a realignment process. That journey would be easier and less risky if there was a clear view from across the wider unionist family on how it should look. It is time that the unionist grassroots had its say to inform and influence any discussions on the future of unionism. Uniting UK is launching an online survey to provide unionist voters with the opportunity to make their views known. The results of this survey will be shared with the unionist party leaders.

Realignment isn’t just a unionist issue, Colum Eastwood recently called for nationalist parties to seek “common cause outside of narrow election contests”. Former Labour Special Advisor and pro-nationalist commentator Kevin Meagher has said, “For United Irelanders, party labels are now irrelevant.” Brian Feeney in his Irish News column says that a border poll is a “foregone conclusion.” Unionism’s opponents are taking this seriously, so must we.

To take it seriously we must first be honest about the current political landscape. The latest LucidTalk tracker poll shows unionism split three ways, with the DUP on 18% and both the UUP and TUV on 12% each. Over recent years that split in the vote combined with reduced unionist turnout has seen Sinn Fein secure the First Minister post and become the largest party from Northern Ireland at Westminster, in the Assembly and across our council chambers. These results feed the narrative that a ‘united Ireland’ is inevitable and if the direction of travel continues then so will calls for a border poll. The next elections are in 2027 and, based on these most recent poll results, it is clear that Michelle O’Neill will easily retain her First Minister post. It is easy to see why many unionists are demotivated and pessimistic.

There is no need for this to be the case. Political nationalism has not grown its combined vote since the Belfast Agreement. Unionism is still the largest voting block in Northern Ireland. Opinion poll after opinion poll shows a clear majority for Northern Ireland to remain within the Union. There is no reason why unionism cannot retake the First Minister position and win additional seats in all elected chambers. An improvement in unionist electoral performance would generate confidence and positivity that would motivate the electorate to turn out. Greater electoral success will provide unionism with more power at Stormont to make devolution better and deliver for all the people of Northern Ireland. A virtuous circle would be created.

This step change in unionist political performance is achievable. Instead of constant steps back we halt the retreat and move forward. Retaking the First Minister post would send a clear message that unionism is no longer on the back foot; that the momentum for a border poll is lost, has no chance of success and should be avoided altogether.

This outcome can be achieved if political unionism changes but such change needs to be broadly based and take the unionist base with it. The Uniting UK Grassroots Survey provides the opportunity for pro-Union voters to make their voice heard. The Uniting UK Grassroots Survey asks your opinion on the current performance of political unionism and seeks your views on whether or how unionism needs to change.

The survey has been designed alongside market research professionals from Great Britain and all responses will be anonymous. Uniting UK will be distributing the Grassroots Survey through the Loyal Orders, bands forums, community groups and political parties over the summer. The more responses we receive the greater the impact your voice will have.

The next election is 21 months away. It’s your Union, your future and this is your chance to have a say in setting unionism’s direction.

The survey can be accessed from the Uniting UK website at unitinguk.com.

12 July 2024 by Philip Smith

The consensus from political commentators after the general election is very clear. Sinn Fein won the west of Northern Ireland and nearly all their seats are safe.

Unionism is now more diverse in its representation but some of its remaining seats are highly marginal like East Londonderry.

While the total pro-Union vote at 43.5% is still higher than the pro-nationalist vote at 40.4%, with Sinn Fein now as the largest party at Westminster, many unionists are concerned about the future.

There is a saying in Ulster Unionism, ‘country first, party second, self third’. Unfortunately, at times, some of those standing for unionist parties have got the saying the wrong way round.

It might equally be said that unionist political parties would be better putting country and the electorate ahead of personalities and relatively minor policy differences.

Why do we need a multitude of unionist parties when there are fewer differences between them than there are within factions of Labour, the Conservatives or even the Liberal Democrats?

Unionist unity has always been a holy grail. Although the word unity has now been replaced with realignment, the outworking is still the same. However, is it desirable or feasible?

After the Belfast Agreement referendum and during the Ulster Unionist political civil wars of the late 1990s/early noughties, some so-called ‘baby barristers’ within the UUP formed a group to oppose the Good Friday Agreement called ‘Union First’.

Nearly 25 years later, the most recent Lucid Talk poll showed that 71% of unionist voters still prioritise the Union first. Pro-Union voters want to see their representatives come together to maximise unionist representation and to maintain the Union.

Would realignment deliver a better electoral outcome for unionists? It would secure the position of first minister, win Lagan Valley at the next Westminster election, make East Antrim comfortable, just about protect East Londonderry and help take political control of councils across the east of the Province. On this basis it sounds like a ‘no brainer’.

However, there are two key issues that must be considered. Firstly, as the old left-wing joke goes, the initial item on any agenda may well be the split. Assuming that is avoided, that personalities and old feuds are kept in check, would it be just a one trick pony?

If nationalists see unionists coming together for electoral success, will they not just do the same? Potentially, yes, and that is why realignment has to be based on substance rather than just short-term electoral expediency.

The realignment versus unity debate is more than just semantics. Having every unionist from Jim Allister to Mike Nesbitt in the one group will not work in the long term. There has to be space still for mavericks but mainstream unionism that wants to 'Make NI Work' and grow support for the Union can come together.

Unionism would need to rebrand, create a new name and structure, and, most importantly, understand that to succeed it has to become open to all who are pro-Union and want Northern Ireland to succeed.

That would require the jettisoning of some baggage, creating a genuinely new party that can attract support from outside of traditional unionism.

It would have to be a careful balance of pragmatism with a policy platform that had wide appeal but still has substance.

The danger is that an approach that is too ‘right’ loses more moderate voters to Alliance, too ‘liberal’ and more conservative unionists go to a more hardline grouping.

What it cannot be is an attempt to deepen a siege mentality and create a core vote approach that will alienate not only centrists but a sizeable minority of pro-Union voters and currently non-voters.

The prize is to build a unionist politics that has a larger vote than the current sum of its parts.

Is that too much of an ask of our current unionist political leaders? For Gavin Robinson and Doug Beattie, I don’t think so. For some individuals no doubt there would be severe difficulties – which brings me back to the key question. Is the priority ‘country, party, self’?

If remaining in the unionist comfort zone is the goal, then realignment, electoral pacts or side deals will not sustain the Union in the long term, and we can look forward to the whittling away of seats at future elections and increased pressure for a border poll.

There are three years until the next planned election. Time for mainstream unionism to reflect, change and realign.